Modelling the socio-political feasibility of energy transition with system dynamics

A system dynamics model of energy transition, TEMPEST, represents political and societal factors along with energy, emissions mitigation measures, within a feedbacks. TEMPEST simulates transition from 1980 to 2080, calibrated UK historical data. An exogenous uncertainty analysis showed most cases would achieve net zero before but only 20% stay the required carbon budget. Low probability, high impact have twice future cumulative than best cases. High capital for early on likely reduce total required, risks public pushback. Endogenous about pushback new measure difficulty could increase by quarter. Dealing unwanted feedbacks between society government that will require responsive policy making. The socio-political feasibility achieving UK's target is less techno-economic estimated through standard systems models.